Thought Leadership
Navigating the 2025 Tariff Landscape
The most pressing issue in the retail and consumer goods industries so far this year is the impending impact of tariffs and US foreign policy. All brands and retailers are impacted to varying degrees depending on their specific products and exposure to raw materials, packaging, and finished goods by country of origin/production. While some tariffs are now on pause, others have escalated, and we believe it is prudent to prepare for some degree of tariff impact to your business in 2025. As pricing starts to flow through to the shelf and multiple retailers pause or cancel direct import orders out of China, the industry is preparing for the impact on consumer demand, supply chain, and in-stocks.
We want to help serve as one source of truth for news and information to our clients, but also advise them on the best course of action for their business even as the situation remains very fluid. Below are some of the key resources and recommendations Harvest Group is providing our clients on an ongoing basis.
US & Foreign Policy Headlines
Updated August 29, 2025
As 8/7, new reciprocal rates went into effect, detailed here by country: What are the new tariff rates Trump set on US imports from dozens of countries? | Reuters
New reciprocal tariff
rates went into effect 8/7, detailed here by country.
Universal 10% tariff
on goods from all other countries not addressed in the 7/31 order.
25% tariff
on imports from Mexico extended for another 90 days on 7/31
55% China tariff
on all goods as of 6/11 trade deal (10% reciprocal tariffs + 20% fentanyl + 25% Section 301) to remain until 11/10.
50% tariff
on copper imports.
10% tariff
from China on US products as of 6/11 trade deal. China will resume some exports of rare earth minerals to the U.S.
One Big Beautiful Deal
Bill Act ends the de minimis exemption globally starting July 1, 2027.
35% tariff
on imports from Canada as of 8/1, 10% tariff on Candian energy products (products compliant with USMCA remain on pause).
20% Vietnam tariffs
as of 7/3 trade deal (lower than the 46% announced in April). 40% rate for transshipments through Vietnam from third countries.
Tariff Overview Update – August 29, 2025
On 8/29 most of President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs (including 10% universal baseline and additional surcharges up to 50% on various countries) were ruled illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court found the executive branch overstepped its authority.
- The ruling does not affect certain sector-specific tariffs (steel, copper, or auto parts imposed under other statutes like Section 232) so those remain in force.
- The court allowed the contested tariffs to remain in place through mid‑October (around October 14) to give time for appeals.
- The White House is appealing to the Supreme Court. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims the tariffs were justified by national emergencies, and they’re preparing to invoke alternative legal authorities like the Smoot–Hawley Act’s Section 338 if needed.
- Consensus from legal scholars is really MIXED on how the Supreme Court will rule: Many expect a nuanced outcome, whether through backing of IEEPA or via fallback mechanisms like the Smoot–Hawley Act or sector-specific statutes.
- The Supreme Court’s justices will meet for their “long conference” around September 29, 2025, at which point they are likely to consider whether to take up the tariff case.
- Analysts foresee a ruling coming by the end of 2025.
Insights & Direction – Client Webinar Recap
Takeaways from Client Partner Conversations
In July, we hosted a webinar with three of our client partners: Richard Palmer, Keli Lerdal, and Andrew Cops. Moderated by Harvest Group’s Market Intelligence Lead Jackie Lewis, the discussion explored how brands are navigating tariff impacts on the ground – from mitigation strategies to evolving retailer conversations.
▪️ Tariffs Are a Team Sport: Success requires strong coordination across sales, supply chain, finance, and operations – especially with mitigation efforts in play. Now’s the time to make sure internal alignment is airtight.
▪️ Price Increases in the Pipeline: With 90–120 day lead times, many increases haven’t landed at shelf yet. Brands should expect to see bigger pricing and demand shifts in Q3 and Q4 – especially in discretionary categories.
▪️ Diversification Got Trickier: Many early mitigation strategies focused on shifting production out of China, but recent tariff changes introduced double-digit rates for countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia. It’s a moment for pause, not panic, on structural sourcing decisions.
▪️ Retailer Conversations Shifting: Early discussions were collaborative and focused on information sharing. With more clarity on tariffs, conversations are becoming more negotiation-driven and cost-specific.
Featured Content
What we’re reading, watching, and listening to in order to stay informed.
Featured Article
Tariff Sentiment Tracker
Numerator’s Tariff Sentiment Tracker delivers bi-weekly insights into how evolving trade policies impact consumer awareness, sentiment, and shopping behavior.
Featured Article - Reuters
New Tariff Rates on US Imports from Dozens of Countries
New adjusted reciprocal tariff rates, opens new tab levied on U.S. importers, which will take effect on August 7, listed in alphabetical order by country of origin.
Featured Article
IHA Survey Shows Tariff impact on Housewares Industry
New IHA survey shows 87% of housewares companies have been significantly impacted by tariffs, with businesses cancelling shipments, shifting sourcing, and reducing workforces.
Insights from Harvest Group’s Market Intelligence Lead
Jackie Lewis
As part of our company’s initiative to proactively guide clients through tariff impacts, Jackie regularly delivers comprehensive analyses directly to clients, equipping them with the real-time information they need to make decisive, strategic decisions.
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