Thought Leadership
Navigating the 2025 Tariff Landscape
The most pressing issue in the retail and consumer goods industries so far this year is the impending impact of tariffs and US foreign policy. All brands and retailers are impacted to varying degrees depending on their specific products and exposure to raw materials, packaging, and finished goods by country of origin/production. While some tariffs are now on pause, others have escalated, and we believe it is prudent to prepare for some degree of tariff impact to your business in 2025. As pricing starts to flow through to the shelf and multiple retailers pause or cancel direct import orders out of China, the industry is preparing for the impact on consumer demand, supply chain, and in-stocks.
We want to help serve as one source of truth for news and information to our clients, but also advise them on the best course of action for their business even as the situation remains very fluid. Below are some of the key resources and recommendations Harvest Group is providing our clients on an ongoing basis.
Insights & Direction
Brand Response Strategies
Short Term:
Companies are implementing immediate responses including:
- Accelerating inventory transfers to US warehouses.
- Reviewing existing contracts with their current sourcing base.
- Evaluating trade and marketing spend
- Strategically passing through cost changes
- Analyzing recessionary category dynamics
Long Term:
Brands are also making fundamental strategic changes:
- Diversifying sourcing locations.
- Exploring nearshoring opportunities.
- Implementing product and packaging redesigns.
US & Foreign Policy Headlines
On 5/28 the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by unilaterally imposing sweeping tariffs. The court vacated most of the tariffs listed below (except those on steel, aluminum, and autos).
Shortly after, a federal appeals court issued a stay order, temporarily pausing this ruling until it can review. Ongoing litigation is expected over the next few weeks and months, but for now, the tariffs remain in effect.
Updated July 10, 2025
New reciprocal tariff
rates were announced 7/8, set to go into effect on August 1 detailed here by country.
Universal 10% tariff
on all goods remains on most countries as negotiations are ongoing, excluding China, Canada, Mexico.
25% tariff
on imports from Mexico and Canada, 10% tariff on Canadian energy products (products compliant with the USMCA remain on pause).
55% China tariff
on all goods as of 6/11 trade deal (10% reciprocal tariffs + 20% fentanyl + 25% Section 301). Unclear if previous exemptions on imported electronics, including phones, computers and semiconductors will remain in place.
50% tariff
on steel and aluminum for all countries as of 6/4. Deal announced on 6/16 exempt UK from these tariffs, US plans to impose a future quota system.
25% tariff
on fully built cars and certain auto parts – reimbursements will be available up to 3.75% of the value of a US-made car for one year, then 2.5% the year after, before phasing out.
Reduced de minimis
levies on 5/14 from 120% to 54% for items valued at up to $800 sent from China, with a flat fee of $100 to remain.
25% tariff
from Canada on select vehicle imports from the US and $30B worth of goods detailed here.
20% Vietnam tariffs
as of 7/3 trade deal (lower than the 46% announced in April). 40% rate for transshipments through Vietnam from third countries.
Tariff Overview Update – June 2, 2025
Harvest Group’s Market Intelligence Lead, Jackie Lewis, breaks down the latest tariff developments as of June 2, 2025 and their implications for retail strategy.
Key takeaways include:
- Current status of tariff policies (and why they’re still evolving)
- Key insights from Q1 retail earnings calls on tariff impacts
- Federal court rulings affecting trade policy
- Actionable steps to prepare for the H2 2025
Whether you’re planning inventory adjustments, pricing strategies, or supply chain modifications, this update delivers the market intelligence you need to stay competitive in an uncertain policy environment.
Featured Content
What we’re reading, watching, and listening to in order to stay informed.
Featured Article
Tariff Sentiment Tracker
Numerator’s Tariff Sentiment Tracker delivers bi-weekly insights into how evolving trade policies impact consumer awareness, sentiment, and shopping behavior.
Featured Webinar - HBR Roundtable
Leading Through New Tariff, Trade, and Supply Chain Realities
The discussion examined how tariffs, trade deals, and global trade shifts are reshaping commerce. Leaders will gain actionable strategies for navigating uncertainty, adjusting supply chains, and rethinking manufacturing.
Featured Article
IHA Survey Shows Tariff impact on Housewares Industry
New IHA survey shows 87% of housewares companies have been significantly impacted by tariffs, with businesses cancelling shipments, shifting sourcing, and reducing workforces as they navigate ongoing trade uncertainty.
Insights from Harvest Group’s Market Intelligence Lead
Jackie Lewis
As part of our company’s initiative to proactively guide clients through tariff impacts, Jackie regularly delivers comprehensive analyses directly to clients, equipping them with the real-time information they need to make decisive, strategic decisions.
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