Thought Leadership
Navigating the 2025 Tariff Landscape
The most pressing issue in the retail and consumer goods industries so far this year is the impending impact of tariffs and US foreign policy. All brands and retailers are impacted to varying degrees depending on their specific products and exposure to raw materials, packaging, and finished goods by country of origin/production. While some tariffs are now on pause, others have escalated, and we believe it is prudent to prepare for some degree of tariff impact to your business in 2025. As pricing starts to flow through to the shelf and multiple retailers pause or cancel direct import orders out of China, the industry is preparing for the impact on consumer demand, supply chain, and in-stocks.
We want to help serve as one source of truth for news and information to our clients, but also advise them on the best course of action for their business even as the situation remains very fluid. Below are some of the key resources and recommendations Harvest Group is providing our clients on an ongoing basis.
Insights & Direction
Brand Response Strategies
Short Term:
Companies are implementing immediate responses including:
- Accelerating inventory transfers to US warehouses.
- Reviewing existing contracts with their current sourcing base.
- Evaluating trade and marketing spend
- Strategically passing through cost changes
- Analyzing recessionary category dynamics
Long Term:
Brands are also making fundamental strategic changes:
- Diversifying sourcing locations.
- Exploring nearshoring opportunities.
- Implementing product and packaging redesigns.
Real-time survey results using Harvest Group’s new proprietary consumer testing tool.
Consumer Insights – Tariff Impact Survey Results
April 25, 2025
While it’s early to assess the full impact of tariffs on spending patterns, our real-time survey conducted on April 15, 2025 with 271 consumers using Harvest Group’s proprietary consumer testing tool provides valuable insights. Our findings reveal projected shopping behavior changes across price thresholds, consumer preferences for brand responses, anticipated retailer switching patterns, and tactical considerations for businesses.
Download the full report here:
US & Foreign Policy Headlines
Updated May 14, 2025
90-day pause
on reciprocal tariffs (until July 9th) as of 4/9 – detailed here.
Universal 10% tariff
on all goods remains on most countries as negotiations are ongoing, excluding China, Canada, Mexico.
25% tariff
on imports from Mexico and Canada, 10% tariff on Canadian energy products (products compliant with the USMCA remain on pause).
30% tariff
on all goods from China for 90 days, updated from the previous 145% on May 12 with exemptions on imported electronics, including phones, computers, and semiconductors.
25% tariff
on steel and aluminum from all countries, excluding UK per deal on 5/8.
25% tariff
on fully built cars and certain auto parts – reimbursements will be available up to 3.75% of the value of a US-made car for one year, then 2.5% the year after, before phasing out.
Reduced de minimis levies
on 5/14 from 120% to 54% for items valued at up to $800 sent from China, with a flat fee of $100 to remain.
25% tariff
from Canada on select vehicle imports from the US and $30B worth of goods detailed here.
10% tariff
from China on US products for 90 days, banned exports of rare earth monerals to the US. Reduced from 125% on May 12.
Featured Content
What we’re reading, watching, and listening to in order to stay informed.
Featured Article
Tricks of the Trade: Consumers React to U.S. Tariffs
“Numerator’s latest survey of U.S. consumers sheds light on how tariffs are shaping sentiment and shopping habits, offering insights into consumer concerns and strategic opportunities for brands, manufacturers, and retailers.”
Featured Webinar - HBR Roundtable
Leading Through New Tariff, Trade, and Supply Chain Realities
The discussion examined how tariffs, trade deals, and global trade shifts are reshaping commerce. Leaders will gain actionable strategies for navigating uncertainty, adjusting supply chains, and rethinking manufacturing.
Featured Webinar - HBR Roundtable
Leading Through New Tariff, Trade, and Supply Chain Realities
Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State and an expert on global supply chains, tells Derek that in the trade war between the U.S. and China, one of these two countries seems better positioned to weather a protracted trade dispute—and it’s not the U.S.
Insights from Harvest Group’s Market Intelligence Lead
Jackie Lewis
As part of our company’s initiative to proactively guide clients through tariff impacts, Jackie regularly delivers comprehensive analyses directly to clients, equipping them with the real-time information they need to make decisive, strategic decisions.
From The Blog
Tariff Overview Update – March 20, 2025
Majors retailers are navigating a complex tariff landscape impacting produce, alcohol, apparel, electronics, packaging, and more. From inventory strategies to vendor negotiations, discover how major retailers like Target and Kroger are mitigating tariff impacts—and crucially, what CPG brands and suppliers should be doing right now.
Key takeaways include:
- How tariffs directly affect your product categories.
- Retailer strategies to offset tariff costs.
- Critical documentation and pricing strategies for suppliers.
Stay informed, proactive, and ahead of the tariff curve.
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